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UN predicts how much the Earth should heat in the next 5 years

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World Meteorological Organization predicts warming close to 1 C per year until 2024; it seems little, but climate catastrophes are increasingly common on the planet

The average annual temperature on Earth should be at least 1 C warmer than the pre-industrial era each year until 2024. This is the forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN), this Thursday (9).

The Organization also says that there is a probability above 20% of peaks above 1.5 C in at least one of these years. Anyway, between 2020 and 2024, virtually all regions of the planet, except for some southern ocean areas, will experience higher temperatures than they currently do.

Between 1850 and 1900, the planet already increased by at least 1 C in its average temperature. It seems little, but climate catastrophes are more and more recurrent. The past five years have been the warmest on record in history.

The UN predicts more humid climatic conditions in the high latitude regions of the Earth and drier in the north and east of South America. The forecasts do not take into account changes in greenhouse gas emissions recorded during confinement to contain the new coronavirus pandemic. .

“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous challenge facing the Paris Agreement on Climate Change to maintain an increase in global temperature in this century well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels,” said the Secretary General of OMM Petteri Taalas.

According to Taalas, the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions this year should not lead to a decrease in atmospheric concentrations of CO2; the cause of the rise in global temperature.

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“Due to the very long service life of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the impact of the fall in emissions this year is not expected to lead to a reduction in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that are driving the rise in global temperature.”

WMO also expects that only by 2020, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be drier than in the recent past.

Global warming Science Earth UN planet Earth temperature Science & Space meteorology

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